New Rules Of American AI Export Control: Opposing Under Waves Or "Self -Eating Bad Results"

The first artificial intelligence export control rules in the United States finally unveiled the veil.1moon13On the day, the Bayeng government issued an artificial intelligence (AI) The temporary final rules of the spread of the export control framework, for advanced computing chips and certain closed artificial intelligence(AI) Model weight implementation management and control, while announced the new permit exception and update the data center to verify the end user(VEU)Authorized.

In terms of rules, this new yearregulationMain controlAIHardware and model weights, including the launch of a global export license system, divide the country and regions into three levels, andAIThe model weight is included in the scope of export control.As a result, the United States is trying to build a global centered worldAIDevelop new order while protecting the US -European supply chain.

However, in view of the newregulationIt is rushing to formulate, and has not fully negotiated with Congress and the industry. After its release, it has quickly attracted widespread criticism, opposition and doubts globally, including being regarded as possible to become the most destructive in the history of the American technology industry.One of the policies will damage the competitiveness of the United States' scientific and technological industry and the global supply chain, as well as the chip market to give the chip market to competitors such as China.But in any case, how to respond better in China is a vital issue of the times.

Introducing global hierarchical export control system

In terms of policy structure, according to the Ministry of Commerce Industry and Security Agency(BIS)Introduction, Biden-The regulatory framework of artificial intelligence technology formulated by the Harris government implements a three -pronged approach, that is, update the control of advanced computing chips, and the most advanced closed weightAIThe model weight of the model implements new controls and applies security conditions related to reducing the risk of being transferred by advanced computing chips.

In short, the structure of this rule can be simply summarized as the main controlAIHardware and model weight.

Among them, controlledGPUThere is no change in performance standards before, and it is still a data center chip with total processing performance and performance density reaching a certain threshold.However, the key difference is that this rule breaks the traditional logic of the US export control, and has launched a global export license system. It is about to divide the country and region into three levels, and implement different export restrictions.

The first level includes major American allies, such as Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, Taiwan, Singapore, etc.18A country and region.These countries are newregulationIt is called an artificial intelligence authorized state, and the control policy has basically not changed before; the second level includes the one except the first echelon100Multi -countries, these countries will face total power restrictions, each country is2025End2027During the year, you can get a maximum of contract5Tens of thousands of piecesAI GPU; The third level is mainland China, Russia, etc.24A country and region that has been carried out by the United States will be restricted by the most stringent restrictions, and the imports of imports in the United States will be almost completely prohibited.AIchip.

For the second -level country, newregulationSet up general user authorization end users (UVEU), National verification end users (NVEU) Authorization, you need to meet one series of complex conditions to buy moreGPU; And formulate a number of restrictions on third -country transshipment to prevent third -level countries from obtaining transit through unlimited countriesAIchip.

In addition, newregulationFor the first timeAIThe model weight is included in the scope of export control.US Department of CommerceBISIn "Business Control List" (CCL)AIThe parameters of the model add oneECCNcoding4E091The scope of control mainly involves the final threshold is more than10of26Second-rateCalculus calculationOperation trainingClosed source modelAnd adding a new for the United StatesIaaSThe relevant red flag warning of the provider (Red Flag 28To.However, the open source model is exempted from the scope of control.

It is worth noting that, in addition to the weight of the model in the United States,BISFor the first time, it also created foreign direct product rules for model weights outside the United States.This brings some more direct coincidences for the big model of Chinese companies in overseas trainingregulationrisk.For American suppliers who have obtained global authorization, they will only be allowed to deploy their total in the United StatesAIComputing50%, The deployment ratio outside the first level must not exceed more25%,existSingle nonThe proportion of national deployment of the first level must not exceed more7%。

Recruit global criticism and questioning

In view of the huge changes in artificial intelligence, countries around the world are actively preparing and planning for the development and improvement of artificial intelligence.USAThink tank strategyWith International Research Center (CSIS) Research Director Gregory Allen (Gregory Allen) It is said that the White House believes that in the next few years the real change of artificial intelligence, it is very important whether the United States can take the lead in achieving this goal.

Analysts point out that the United States formulates new rules to set up clearer boundaries between allies and opponents, and aims to divide the world into areas that can use the latest advanced computing power of the United States.Through strict hierarchical control, this is comprehensiveControllerThe introduction shows that the United States is building a global centered world AI Develop new order while protecting the US -European supply chain.

Graigari Allen further stated that one of the purpose of this policy is to make it difficult for China to smuggle a large number of chips to China.Artificial intelligence infrastructure provides huge incentives.

However, in fact this oneAIRegulatory policies have led to wider criticism, opposition and doubts globally globally.

Henna Victan, Executive Vice Chairman of the European Commission(Henna Virkkunen)Hedu Member Morosh Stev Joevich(Maroš Šefčovič)In a joint statement, they are worried about the exports of some EU member states and their companies that the United States today takes measures to restrict some EU member states and their companies.The EU is an economic opportunity for the United States, not security risks.

Such a scale and influential policy transformation hurriedly introduced a few days before the transition of the president, and we did not get any meaningful opinions from the industry. We were deeply disappointed.John Nuoyfu, President of Semiconductor Industry Association (John Neuffer) Further fingerOut, the new rules may give a strategic market to competitors, which will cause unexpected lasting damage to the global competitiveness of the US economy and semiconductor and artificial intelligence.

In this regard, the Chairman and CEO of the Washington Information Technology Industry Committee Jason Oxmanman(Jason Oxman)Hold a similar point of view.He said: If the implementation is urgent, such rules will destroy the global supply chain and may encourage multinational companies and customers to reduce dependence on US technology.The rushing to complete a major and complex rule may have major adverse consequences, and the Bayeng government will soon be unable to manage and resolve this consequences.

On the other hand, these rules reflect the results of the balance of the restrictions required for national security and the restrictions that do not hinder the innovation and income of national security for many years -but the industry believes that it has not succeeded and will weaken it and it will weaken it.NivineWait for the profitability of many American companies.

These regulations will be seriously restricted(Aimential)The market, because the current half of the chip finally flows to the newregulationAfter the effect, there will be export -controlled countries.Investment companyD.A. DavidsonAnalyst JillLulia(Gil Luria)express.

To this,Nvidia governmentVice President of Affairs, Ned Finkl(Ned Finkle)According to the official website, the unprecedented and misleading management and control of the Bayeng government issued by the Bayeng governmentregulationIt is possible to destroy global innovation and economic growth.The new regulations of the Biden government are over -supervision, which will impose bureaucratic control on chips, computers, systems, and even software to global design and marketing methods.It tries to manipulate market results and kill competition, which may waste the hard -won technical advantages.

Or give the chip market to China

Although the United States has launched a global export license system, the focus is still China.As Jack Shatin said, if it is China and not the United States to determine the future of artificial intelligence, I think this will have a profound impact.

U.S. government officials said they believe that they need to take action quickly to keep the United States in the field of artificial intelligence compared to competitors such as China6arrive18The advantages of the month, but if the competitors can accumulate chips and further profit, this leading advantage is easy to be eaten.But some analysts said,120The period of Sky's solicitation will allow China to hoard a large number of chips.

In fact, the Biden government has upgraded export control over China several times, but some of these control measures have vulnerabilities, so the new regulations will restrict the wider national group.The White House has also acknowledged that China has now managed the United States to avoid sanctions that the United States had previously aimed at hindering its development of advanced artificial intelligence, partly because of indirectly purchasing American chips and other technologies through other countries.

Raymond James Analyst Ed Mills(Ed Mills)It is said that U.S. officials are particularly worried about the data centers established in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.He also said that Chinese companies use these data centers to build artificial intelligence models, and they cannot import them to China themselves.

However, the US export controlStill orIt will further appear.

science and technologyPolicy think tank information technologyDaniel Castro (Daniel Castro) It was said that by forcing other countries to make choices between the United States and China, the government risked the risk of alienation of key partners, and accidentally strengthened China's position in the global artificial intelligence ecosystem.Faced with such an ultimatum, many countries may choose to provide them with uninterrupted access to its economic growth and digital future.

Therefore, the United States should adopt a strategy of focusing on competition rather than curbing.

Many industry participants pointed out that the United States this timeAIExport control newregulationIt will indirectly promote the market share of Chinese companies to obtain more intermediate countries.Earlier, Ken Gelu Aike, executive vice president of Oracle (Ken Glueck) Previously wrote on the company's official website that this new oneregulationIt may become one of the most destructive policies in the history of the American technology industry. This policy directly reduces the global chip market of the American company80%It is equivalent to giving the chip market to competitors such as China.

In addition, the United States has begun to restrict high -end chips to China, but this does not prevent Chinese technological progress.Ma Jihua, a senior telecommunications industry observers, said that the United States has begun to restrict high -end chips to China, but this does not prevent Chinese technological progress.At present, domestic operators and some computing centers have almost completely used domestic chips. They have got rid of their dependence on American chips, andGPU There are already domestic alternatives.The attempts to try to restrict China's artificial intelligence development are unlikely to be truly effective.

Conclusion

During the lame duck period, the Bayeng government still introduced a series of semiconductors andAIWaiting for export control measures, in addition to the official motivation, it is also said that many analysts are stated that they will leave many problems for the Trump administration for consolidating political heritage and party interests.

At present, the upcoming Trump administration's position in artificial intelligence export control is not very clear.However, Jonathan Clory, co -head of the Science and Technology Group of Gao Weishen Law Firm, said that he did not think that Trump will continue to exist after taking office, and pointed out that a key campaign commitment of Trump is to change the government's artificial intelligence to artificial intelligence.Method of supervision.

He also said that the Trump administration will definitely withdraw many policies proposed by Biden.

And there are some signs that are reflected.Texas Republican, the chairman of the Senate Commercial Committee, who is about to take office(Ted Cruz)Said, this is the government of BidenAIThe regulations will destroy the leadership of the US semiconductor industry.Therefore, he is going to launch the Congress Review Act, which can be used to overthrow the federal agency.

In the future, regardless of the United StatesAIWhat is the direction of chip export control, and how China respond to is a vital issue of the times.